Ok, I have a theory that I'm going to test out.

Basically, it's a well known fact that in the beginning stages of a bear market, the financials are usually the first to kick the bucket. Which makes sense because usually near the bull market peaks, liquidity usually gets constrained by high interest rates and high energy costs. This in turn causes banks to tighten lending standards and the financial markets to lock up. Granted, we just had a financial bubble, but even so, really, the financials crashing first during a bear market is nothing new.

I've done some research, and based on historical information, it seems to be a pattern that the financials have been rallying for a good period of time before the cyclical bull markets start their stampedes.

So, my theory is this:
It's very simple. Using KRE as a benchmark, if KRE stays above its low for 6 months, I'm going to take that as a sign that a bull market has started. Each new lowest low will start the "timer" over. Let's see how close this indicator is to the next bull market.

Right now, KRE had its low of 30.25 on Jan 21st. So, we are at exactly 2 months for this "indicator".

Any thoughts or criticisms on this?